A-Share Humanoid Robot Companies: Have Valuations Priced in 2028?

Summary

An analysis of 2026 interim reports for more than 60 A-share humanoid-robot concept companies argues that industry fundamentals remain far behind the market narrative. Excluding Unitree, which had only just listed in August, four established robot-body makers generated about RMB 6 billion in revenue but recorded a combined attributable loss of RMB 96 million, a 1.6% net margin. By comparison, Inovance reported RMB 2.81 billion in attributable profit in the first half alone. The article says three leading reducer makers generated roughly RMB 5.5 billion in revenue, less than half of Inovance's quarterly revenue, while their profit growth came with shrinking unit economics: Leader Harmonious Drive's gross margin fell from 40.56% in 2023 to 32.26% in 2026 H1, and Zhongda Leader's net margin was 4.6%. The analysis attributes the pressure to price concessions for supply-chain entry, rising labor costs during capacity expansion, and traditional industrial and automotive demand rather than a separately observable humanoid-robot profit contribution. Automotive Tier 1 suppliers Sanhua Intelligent Control and Tuopu Group earned RMB 2.044 billion and RMB 1.023 billion respectively in first-half attributable profit, suggesting that existing automotive manufacturing capabilities may be better positioned to support future robot orders than pure-play concept stocks. The article also argues that when domestic substitution exceeds 70%, competition can shift from substitution benefits to price bidding, compressing margins and raising unit costs when capacity is underused. Only three and a half of the more than 60 companies met its tests for robot revenue, technically meaningful margins, and positive operating cash flow. Five relatively pure humanoid-robot names together had about RMB 9 billion in first-half profit and a combined market value of roughly RMB 140 billion, with a median static P/E above 90; most of that profit still came from traditional businesses. Under an optimistic 2028 scenario of 500,000 global shipments, RMB 20,000 of A-share supplier value per unit, and a 10% net margin, the implied profit would be about RMB 1 billion, still equivalent to roughly 140 times the current market value. The article concludes that the sector remains in the early transition from prototypes to production lines, with yield improvement, supplier validation, and downstream orders as key variables, while presenting its conclusions as analysis rather than investment advice.