AI Boom Could Remove 230 Million Budget Phones a Year by 2030

Summary

Counterpoint Research forecasts that shipments of smartphones priced below $200 will fall by about 40 percent between 2025 and 2030, reducing the market by more than 230 million devices a year by the end of the decade. The wider smartphone market is expected to recover to close to its 2025 volume, but the affordable segment may remain permanently smaller. Counterpoint attributes the contraction to rising memory and chipset costs, higher minimum specifications, and manufacturers’ reduced willingness to sell entry-level phones at thin or negative margins. AI infrastructure spending is redirecting chip production toward higher-margin components, while DRAM and NAND prices have risen sharply amid low inventories. Lower-income consumers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, may respond by buying more expensive phones, keeping existing devices longer, or choosing used and refurbished models. Manufacturers are expected to focus launches and marketing on the mid-range, competing through design, cameras, battery life, and durability, while premium products drive revenue. Apple, Samsung, and Huawei are identified as potential beneficiaries. Similar supply pressure is affecting Chromebooks and PCs, with the article citing forecasts of a 27.6 percent decline for ChromeOS shipments and smaller declines for Windows PCs and Macs.