Will a Major-Party U.S. Presidential Candidate Deploy an AI Clone Before 2028?

Summary

A Manifold prediction market asks whether a candidate who becomes the Democratic or Republican nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election will deploy or authorize an AI-powered digital replica before November 7, 2028. The system would need to represent the candidate through their likeness, voice, or both, and hold substantive, unscripted conversations with voters by generating answers dynamically. It would also have to be publicly accessible rather than limited to internal campaign testing, and its use would need explicit authorization from the candidate or official campaign. A qualifying deployment must be independently verifiable through credible reporting or a publicly accessible demonstration. The rules exclude AI-generated advertisements and prerecorded speeches, ordinary campaign chatbots that do not present themselves as the candidate, unauthorized deepfakes or parodies, and systems used only for campaign research, fundraising, or internal operations. The market can resolve YES as soon as a qualifying deployment is verified; otherwise it resolves NO at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 6, 2028.